Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Pg. 312-316

Paul David's paper "The Computer and the Dynamo" analyzes the gains in productivity that came from the availability of electricity and compared them to increases in productivity due to the invention of the computer. Electricty led to two unique periods of technological advancement. The primary phase occurred when "electric dynamos" took over the roll of steam engines to provide power. The second stage was the creation of "miniaturized electric motors" that would power household appliances, like: refrigerators and radios. David comments that a similar reaction could be expected from the computer industry. The productivity issues of the 1980's were labeled as "technological presbyopia", which meant that people were acutely aware of what computer technology could lead to in the future, but were quite uncertain of the next step to reach these future goals/ideas. Timothy Bresnahan and Manuel Trajtenberg created a model that simplified comparisons like David's as "general purpose technologies". GPTs are basically inventions that initiated other technological advances. The model also addressed the innovations that were inspired by the GPTs. Kenneth Sokoloff, used these models to show that "inventive activity originates around transportation centers", and why the low fee patent system in the US spread to a much greater number of people than the "class-conscious European system". The success of new technology in markets typically depended on the "bandwagon" effect (as stated in Thorstein Veblen's book Imperial Germany and the Industrial Revolution) . These markets were also considered monopolies because of increasing returns. A new generation of economists directed their attention to the key components of "network externalities", such as; interoperability (compatibility) of standards, complementarity of system components, switching costs around to pay for the education for a new system, and lock-in. What economists discovered was the same "hardware/ software/ wetware paradigm" (wetware being the human brain) that Katz and Shapiro had already detected. In the 1990's, economics had greatly developed and had begun a great transformation. For decades, growth theory explained the gap between savings and investment as foreign aid/ education/ population control. William Easterly explained that the reason none of these solutions are working is because not everyone has the same incentives for economic growth. The new growth theory brought attention to different issues, such as; the importance of institutions, multinational firms capability to spread knowledge, foreign investements to improve developing countries, and the significance of location, climate, and disease. Many economists focused their studies on different aspects of the new growth theory, and each economist was able to look at the issue from a different perspective.

1 comment:

  1. A for Kim.

    And ... I think an important part of the "presbyopia" is that growth was slowed in the near term because it was hard to see how to proceed forward to the big gains that everyone knows are out there.

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